An El Niño event is developing in the Pacific, and the latest model guidance (early May 2026) has shifted the central expectation toward a strong event peaking around the turn of the year. Eastern New Zealand — Canterbury, Hawke's Bay, Gisborne, Marlborough, Wairarapa and inland Otago — is the area of greatest concern, with elevated drought risk, frequent foehn (NW) wind events, and a higher probability of extreme heat through summer. A wet West Coast is possible too.

We've just released the El Niño 2026-27 Agricultural Outlook — a detailed 30 page briefing covering all 13 NZ forecast regions across pastoral, sheep & beef, horticulture, arable and viticulture sectors. It includes a regional weather and sector impact picture, a marker-point watch list to monitor through spring, recommended preparation actions month by month, and confidence ratings on every call.

The most important window for low-cost preparation runs from now to August — feed contracts, destocking decisions, irrigation infrastructure checks, banking and processor conversations are all easier and cheaper to handle in winter than under summer pressure. The reports translate the climate forecast into the operational decisions farmers and growers actually face, in plain language with confidence levels you can use to calibrate your own response.

Free preview content is on the Blue Skies Substack; the full report is included with a paid subscription ($395/year), which also gives you full access to the monthly seasonal outlooks and weekly six-week updates that will keep this picture current as the event evolves. Sign up at bswx.substack.com or purchase here as a standalone file.